Hans-Peter Kohler


Hans-Peter Kohler (Ph.D., Berkeley)

Hans-Peter Kohler (Ph.D., Berkeley) is the Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography at the University of Pennsylvania as well as a Research Associate at the Population Studies Center.

Dr. Kohler is one of the world’s top experts on fertility and health in developing and developed countries. A key characteristic of his primary research is the attempt to integrate demographic, economic, sociological and biological approaches in empirical and theoretical models of demographic behavior.

He is the recipient of the 2005 the Clifford C. Clogg Award for Early Career Achievement by the Population Association of America, has been a recent fellow at the Norwegian Academy of Science, and his research has received extensive funding through the National Institutes of Health (USA) and other institutions. Dr. Kohler is the author of a book on fertility and social interaction, has co-edited books on the biodemography of human reproduction and fertility and on causal inferences in population studies. He has widely published on topics related to fertility, health, social and sexual networks, HIV/AIDS, biodemography and well-being in leading scientific journals, and his work has had substantial influence on policy and media discussions related to demographic change.


Alicia Adsera


Alicia Adsera (Ph.D., Boston University)

Alicia Adsera (Ph.D., Boston University) is a Research Scholar and Lecturer in Economics and International Public Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University and the Director of Graduate Studies at the Office of Population Research. She is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration at the University College in London and is also Co-director of the Child Migration Network at Princeton University.

Dr. Adsera is one of the world’s top experts on labor market trends and fertility. She works on the role of economic conditions on fertility decisions as well as several migration topics such as returns to language, welfare drivers of migration flows and labor market progression of immigrants.

Dr. Adsera’s work has been published in the Economic Journal, American Economic Review P&P, Journal of Population Economics, Population Studies, Journal of Law Economics and Organization, and International Organization among others.


S. Philip Morgan


S. Philip Morgan (Ph.D., Arizona)

S. Philip Morgan (Ph.D., Arizona) is the Alan Feduccia Distinguished Professor of Sociology at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill as well as the Director of the Carolina Population Center. He is the former president of the Population Association of America and currently advises the Social Security Administration on fertility trends in the U.S.

Dr. Morgan’s research focuses on change and variation in the human family, with special attention to human fertility. His work on fertility in the United States examines fertility levels, fertility timing and high levels of nonmarital childbearing. He also studies cross-national variation in low fertility among developed countries and the differential pace of fertility decline in developing ones.

Dr. Morgan has extensive experience in the areas of human fertility, social demography, and sociology of the family and has published scores of books and articles on related topics. Recent books include Understanding Family Change and Variation: Toward a Theory of Conjunctural Action and Vienna Yearbook of Population Research: Special Issue on Reproductive Decision-Making.


Lyman Stone


Lyman Stone

Lyman Stone is a regional economist specializing in spatial-economic forecasting, domestic migration, and regional economic development. His work on migration issues began as an economist for the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, where he worked on tax incentives, migration issues, and data harmonization projects. Lyman now writes extensively on demographics, regional population trends, and migration issues on his blog at medium.com, writes as a regular contributor for Vox and The Federalist on related topics, and provides expert analysis, opinion, and forecasts on population and demographic issues for governments, investment firms, bondholders, and others. His research has been covered in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and numerous other outlets.

Unrelated to his demographic research, Lyman works as an International Economist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, where he specializes in forecasting cotton supply and demand conditions for Africa, the Middle East, and Uzbekistan; he has done field research or presented at conferences for USDA in Germany, Chad, Uzbekistan, Brazil, and Turkey. A native of Kentucky, Lyman received his BA in Economics from Transylvania University in 2013, and his MA in International Trade and Investment from the George Washington University in 2015.


Samuel Sturgeon


Samuel Sturgeon (Ph.D., Penn State)

Samuel Sturgeon (Ph.D., Penn State) is the President of Demographic Intelligence and has over 15 years of experience in demographic forecasting and market research. He received his doctorate in human development and family studies and demography from Penn State University in 2009 and his work has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, USA Today, and other national publications.

Dr. Sturgeon specializes in marriage and fertility trends, and recently he was a lead collaborator to the American Family Survey, a national poll on family relationships and behaviors conducted by the Deseret News and the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy.


W. Bradford Wilcox


W. Bradford Wilcox (Ph.D., Princeton)

W. Bradford Wilcox (Ph.D., Princeton) is the Director of the National Marriage Project, Professor of Sociology at the University of Virginia, and a founder of Demographic Intelligence. Professor Wilcox is a widely published expert on marriage and parenthood in the United States. His research has been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, CNN, the BBC, NBC’s The Today Show, and many other venues; he is also a regular contributor to The Wall Street Journal.

In 2013, Dr. Wilcox published Whither the Child (Paradigm), a book on the causes and consequences of low fertility in the West. Professor Wilcox founded Demographic Intelligence to provide companies, governments, and NGOs with the ability to anticipate shifts in U.S. fertility and marriage trends, to learn what types of American adults are most likely to be having children or to marry, and to understand the fundamental economic, social, and cultural drivers of fertility and family life in the U.S.


Our Company

Demographic Intelligence is a collection of some of the world’s leading demographers. Our team has over 75 collective years of demographic expertise and is especially knowledgeable in subjects that relate to fertility and marriage trends.

Our forecasts provide valuable and innovative demographic insights that are not available anywhere else. For example, with fertility forecasts, detailed data on births by key characteristics of the mother are usually released by National Center for Health Statistics several years after the date to which they apply which makes federal data of limited usefulness. Our forecasts are available 24 months before births happen.

For our forecasting models, we diligently monitor the changing underlying economic, demographic, and cultural conditions that impact fertility and family. This is especially important now, as family change happens at a rapid pace. Our projections have proven to be exceptionally accurate in predicting trends and offer a tremendous value to companies that focus on children and families.

For information on any of our forecasts, consulting services, or individual supplementary projections, please contact us.