Over the last 25 years, the fertility rate in the United States has generally hewed close to the replacement total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per woman, with slight deviations in response to the business cycle. This means that the U.S. has enjoyed exceptionally high fertility for a developed nation. But Demographic Intelligence (DI) now believes that the era of American Exceptionalism when it comes to American fertility is over. For the foreseeable future, DI predicts that the U.S. TFR will remain below 2.0.
Nevertheless, the worst fertility fallout from the Great Recession is over, as DI now projects that births are heading upwards in the U.S. Specifically, DI now predicts that the TFR fell from a recent high of 2.12 children per woman in 2007 and bottomed out at 1.86 in 2013 and 2014 before climbing to 1.87 in 2015, 1.88 in 2016, 1.89 in 2017, and 1.90 in 2018. This week’s Wall Street Journal has a story on the modest birth recover now underway in the United States.
For more on how much and why the fertility rate is now rising, and what this means for U.S. birth totals, subscribe to the U.S. Fertility Forecast™.
The Wall Street Journal highlights projections from the U.S. Fertility Forecast™ in it’s article “Baby Lull Promises Growing Pains for Economy.” The slow rebound in post-recession birth rates is creating challenges for businesses and long-term government programs. One specific prediction mentioned in the article is that the total fertility rate will not go above 1.9 babies per woman for the next five years or longer. Read the full article here.
The China Fertility Forecast 2016 Baseline Report has been released by Demographic Intelligence. This report includes detailed projections for 2014 to 2017 and national projections for Chinese births from 2015 to 2030. See full press release here.
DI Staff2016-05-05T13:28:21+00:00December 17th, 2015|
Demographic Intelligence has released its first-ever fertility forecasts for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The forecasts provide detailed birth estimates for 2014 through 2017 as well as a long term forecast through 2030 which is based on three economic scenarios. In the United States, the DI model generated projections that have typically been more than 99% accurate for births in 2012, 2013 and 2014. See the full press release here.