Over the last 25 years, the fertility rate in the United States has generally hewed close to the replacement total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per woman, with slight deviations in response to the business cycle. This means that the U.S. has enjoyed exceptionally high fertility for a developed nation. But Demographic Intelligence (DI) now believes that the era of American Exceptionalism when it comes to American fertility is over. For the foreseeable future, DI predicts that the U.S. TFR will remain below 2.0.

Nevertheless, the worst fertility fallout from the Great Recession is over, as DI now projects that births are heading upwards in the U.S. Specifically, DI now predicts that the TFR fell from a recent high of 2.12 children per woman in 2007 and bottomed out at 1.86 in 2013 and 2014 before climbing to 1.87 in 2015, 1.88 in 2016, 1.89 in 2017, and 1.90 in 2018. This week’s Wall Street Journal has a story on the modest birth recover now underway in the United States.

For more on how much and why the fertility rate is now rising, and what this means for U.S. birth totals, subscribe to the U.S. Fertility Forecast™.